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UNF Poll: Republicans Hold Single-Digit Leads in Florida Governor and Senate Tests

The survey suggests narrower Republican advantages than in 2022.

Overview

  • Byron Donalds leads David Jolly 42%–36% and Jerry Demings 43%–36% in hypothetical gubernatorial matchups, with 17% and 16% undecided respectively.
  • Ashley Moody holds a 45%–38% edge over Alexander Vindman and a 46%–38% lead over Angie Nixon in prospective U.S. Senate contests, with roughly 14%–15% undecided.
  • Name recognition is low for the Democratic Senate hopefuls, as 66% of respondents had never heard of Vindman and 74% had never heard of Nixon.
  • UNF’s polling director says voter choice is driven more by party than candidate and that the GOP advantage appears weaker than in prior cycles, with Trump rated 45% favorable and 48% unfavorable statewide.
  • The University of North Florida PORL survey polled 786 likely voters from Feb. 21 to March 2 and reports a margin of error of about ±4 percentage points.