UNF Poll Finds GOP Up Double Digits in Florida’s 2026 Statewide Matchups

The snapshot shows sizable Republican edges in early head-to-heads, with many voters still uncommitted plus results within a ±4.25 point margin of error.

Overview

In hypothetical gubernatorial races, Casey DeSantis leads David Jolly 47%–34% and Jerry Demings 47%–36%, while Byron Donalds leads Jolly 45%–34% and Demings 45%–33%.
Republicans also lead in other statewide contests, with Sen. Ashley Moody ahead of Jennifer Jenkins 49%–38% and Attorney General James Uthmeier up on José Javier Rodríguez 45%–36%.
The University of North Florida survey reached 728 likely voters by phone from Oct. 15–25 and carries a ±4.25 percentage point margin of error, with undecided shares reaching double digits in key matchups.
On policy questions, 49% support eliminating property taxes for homeowners, short of the 60% needed for a constitutional amendment, and 63% oppose removing childhood vaccine mandates.
The poll did not test some potential GOP candidates such as Paul Renner or Lt. Gov. Jay Collins, and Donalds later said he is unconcerned about which Democrat he might face as he cited the results.