Overview
- The United Nations Environment Programme published the analysis on Wednesday, October 21, 2026, concluding that global temperatures will cross 1.5°C above pre‑industrial levels and that limiting the peak is still possible with faster action.
- UNEP quantifies the pathway: global greenhouse gas emissions must fall about 18% by 2030 and about 45% by 2035 relative to 2025 while roughly 320 billion tonnes of CO2 must be removed from the atmosphere this century.
- The report finds a large policy gap because current national targets, if fully met, would only cut emissions roughly 5–8% by 2030 and 11–15% by 2035, leaving the world on a path toward about 2.6–2.8°C this century.
- To meet the pathway UNEP calls for rapid expansion of renewables, sharp reductions in fossil‑fuel supply including large cuts to coal use, and urgent scaling of carbon dioxide removal technologies and land measures.
- The findings raise near‑term political stakes for countries negotiating at COP31 in Antalya by showing what stronger national action would buy in lowered peak warming and reduced risks of extreme heat, floods, and health harms.