Overview
- UNEP released the report Limiting Overshoot in Nairobi on Wednesday and concluded the global average temperature will likely exceed 1.5°C in the next few years.
- The report finds current policies put the world on a roughly 2.6°C warming pathway by 2100 and says the best remaining option is a managed overshoot followed by rapid emissions cuts and carbon removal.
- In the most optimistic scenario, fast and comprehensive action could limit the peak to about 1.8°C, but returning to 1.5°C would need massive CO2 removal that is technically and socially uncertain.
- Estimates in coverage show the scale: about 220 gigatonnes of net CO2 removal could lower temperature by 0.1°C this century and returning from a 1.7–1.8°C peak to 1.5°C might require roughly 550 gigatonnes, far above current removal capacity.
- UN and climate leaders warn that some harms from an overshoot will be long‑lasting or irreversible, so the report stresses urgent fossil‑fuel phaseout, big methane cuts, scaled adaptation and that CO2 removal cannot substitute for immediate emission reductions.