Overview
- The UN Environment Programme published its 'Limiting Overshoot' assessment on Wednesday, Sept. 2, 2026, and concluded the long‑term Paris goal of keeping warming below 1.5°C can no longer be achieved on current trajectories and will be breached within years.
- UNEP finds that even full implementation of national pledges and net‑zero targets would likely produce a peak near 1.8°C while policies now in place point to a median warming of about 2.6°C by 2100.
- The report reframes policy from avoiding overshoot to an 'overshoot, peak and decline' pathway that hinges on immediate deep cuts to CO2 emissions, fast reductions in methane, strengthened adaptation for vulnerable communities, and large‑scale carbon dioxide removal (CDR) to bring temperatures down later.
- Authors and scientists warn CDR today is tiny, costly, uncertain and poses governance and social risks, and activists plus leaders of low‑lying nations say treating overshoot as acceptable risks irreversible losses for those least responsible for emissions.
- The assessment reboots climate priorities by stressing rapid fossil‑fuel phaseout, accelerated resilience finance, and international rules for CDR while reminding readers that the 2015 Paris aim to 'pursue efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C' remains the guiding objective even if the path must now be managed from above.