Overview
- The UNEP Emissions Gap Report, released Wednesday, concludes a significant overshoot of the Paris 1.5°C target is now inevitable and reframes policy toward minimising the size and duration of that overshoot.
- Under current policies the report projects roughly 2.6–2.8°C of warming this century while full delivery of current pledges would still leave temperatures near about 2.6°C and only the most optimistic pathways approach about 2.1°C.
- To keep peak warming to the lowest feasible overshoot (about 1.7–1.8°C) the report says emissions must fall roughly 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035 and 69% by 2040 relative to 2025 levels.
- Returning temperatures to 1.5°C after an overshoot would require removal and secure storage of roughly 320 gigatonnes of CO2 over the century, a scale that experts warn is technically and socioeconomically uncertain.
- Preliminary 2025 data show global emissions roughly flat with 2024 and renewables expanding far faster than expected, but UNEP warns policy backsliding—including the United States' withdrawal from the Paris Agreement—leaves a leadership gap ahead of COP31 in Antalya.