Overview
- UN Environment Programme published its 'Limiting Overshoot' report on Wednesday, Sept. 2, 2026, saying global average temperatures will likely cross the 1.5°C threshold within a few years and that the best realistic peak is about 1.8°C if pledges are fully implemented.
- The report frames an 'overshoot, peak and decline' pathway that first limits how high temperatures rise, then uses deep cuts in CO2 and methane plus long-term carbon dioxide removal to bring temperatures back below 1.5°C later this century.
- UNEP warns that staying in overshoot will intensify heatwaves, floods, sea-level rise, glacier loss and species extinctions and raise the chance of irreversible tipping points such as ice-sheet collapse and Amazon degradation.
- Authors say every five years of delayed cuts adds roughly 0.1°C to peak warming, and the report contrasts an optimistic 1.8°C peak with a much worse median of about 2.6°C by 2100 under current policies.
- The report drew immediate criticism for its reliance on large-scale carbon removal, with campaigners and some scientists calling overshoot a political failure and warning that many CDR methods are unproven, land-intensive or pose governance and rights risks.