Overview
- On Wednesday, October 21, 2026, the UN Environment Programme published its Emissions Gap Report finding that the world will almost certainly exceed the Paris 1.5°C limit and must now focus on minimising the size and duration of that overshoot.
- To follow the report's 'lowest overshoot' pathway, global greenhouse-gas emissions must fall about 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035 and 69% by 2040 relative to 2025 levels.
- The report estimates returning temperatures to 1.5°C after an overshoot would require removing roughly 320 gigatonnes of CO2 this century, a scale of carbon dioxide removal that is costly, uncertain and carries major risks.
- Under current national policies warming could reach about 2.8°C this century, full delivery of current pledges would limit warming to about 2.6°C, and the most optimistic pathway would still approach roughly 2.1°C.
- The report notes a rapid expansion of renewables and falling clean-energy costs but warns fossil fuels still dominate energy supply, 2025 emissions were roughly flat at 58.4 billion tonnes CO2e, and UN leaders say stronger political leadership is needed ahead of COP31 in Antalya.