Overview
- UNDP estimates that 20% U.S. duties could shrink Vietnam’s exports to America by more than 19% in a worst-case scenario, or over $25 billion.
- The projected export loss equates to roughly a 5% drag on Vietnam’s GDP, with the full impact likely unfolding over several years.
- Vietnam’s first post-tariff data show a 2% month-on-month drop in August exports to the U.S., including a 5.5% decline in footwear after a pre-tariff rush.
- The analysis omits potential 40% penalties on transshipped goods and current electronics waivers covering about 28% of exports, though losses could still exceed $18 billion with waivers in place.
- Vietnam, the sixth-largest supplier to the U.S. at $136.5 billion last year, is the most exposed in Southeast Asia as Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia face smaller projected declines, and the World Bank has trimmed Vietnam’s growth outlook.