Unédic Projects €2.1 Billion 2026 Deficit Driven by State Levy

Overview

• The 2026 shortfall stems chiefly from a €4.1 billion government prélèvement; without it, Unédic estimates the year would show a €2 billion surplus.
• The fund urges an end to such levies, tallying about €12 billion from 2023 to 2026, and forecasts surpluses of €2.8 billion in 2027 and €4.8 billion in 2028 only if no new withdrawals occur.
• Unédic’s debt, swollen by pandemic‑era borrowing, is projected to reach roughly €61.5 billion by end‑2026, with debt service rising toward 1.7% of receipts by 2028 as refinancing costs climb.
• Spending is forecast at €46.3 billion in 2026 and €46.6 billion in 2027 before easing to €46.2 billion in 2028, based on GDP growth assumptions of 1.0%, 1.1% and 1.2% respectively.
• Insured‑unemployed numbers are seen near 2.6 million in 2026–27, slipping to 2.5 million in 2028; a separate deal tightening rupture conventionnelle indemnities is excluded from the baseline and would require parliamentary approval, with savings ramping from about €20 million in year one to €940 million by year five.