Overview
- Unédic now forecasts a €1.3 billion shortfall in 2026 versus a €100 million deficit in 2025, citing flat numbers of insured unemployed around 2.6 million.
- The bureau will ask the government to revise the 2026 state prélèvement after earlier withdrawals since 2023 reduced its deleveraging capacity by €13 billion.
- Total debt is projected at €59.5 billion at end‑2025 and €60.8 billion at end‑2026, reflecting slower repayment and continued borrowing needs.
- Covid‑era repayments begin in 2026 after financing €19 billion for short‑time work and €2.5 billion for benefit extensions during the pandemic.
- New market borrowing at high rates is set to push debt service to 1.7% of regime revenues by 2027, with forecasts built on 0.7% growth in 2025 and 0.9% in 2026.