Overview

• The study projects per-capita income losses of 20–24% by 2100 under a high-emissions, limited-adaptation pathway relative to a no-further-warming baseline.
• Researchers modeled temperature impacts from 2015 to 2100 for 174 nations using IPCC scenarios and compared results with both historical-trend warming and a hypothetical freeze in further warming.
• If temperatures rise by about 0.04°C per year with minimal mitigation or adaptation, global losses reach 10–11%, increasing to 12–14% when natural climate variability is considered.
• Hotter and lower-income countries face losses 30–60% above the global average, while colder and wealthier nations also experience substantial declines.
• Achieving Paris temperature goals yields an estimated 0.25% global gain versus continued historical-rate warming, and the authors say no country is immune without stronger emissions cuts.