Overview

• The WMO assigns an 80% probability that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will surpass 2024 as the hottest on record.
• There is a 70% chance that the five-year average temperature for 2025–2029 will exceed 1.5 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline, edging close to the Paris Agreement’s lower limit.
• Climate models project annual warming of 1.2–1.9 °C over the next five years and, for the first time, include a 1% likelihood of a year exceeding 2 °C above pre-industrial levels.
• The Arctic is expected to warm more than three and a half times faster than the global mean, while rainfall shifts forecast wetter seasons in the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and Siberia plus drier conditions over the Amazon.
• The report underscores the urgency of sustained emissions reductions and enhanced climate monitoring to equip policymakers and communities for mounting climate risks.