Overview
- UNEP’s 2025 Emissions Gap report projects about 2.3–2.5 C of warming by 2100 if current national plans are fully implemented, versus roughly 2.8 C under today’s policies, with a likely temporary overshoot of 1.5 C within a decade.
- Global greenhouse-gas emissions set a record in 2024 at 57.7 gigatons of CO2e, up 2.3% year over year, with the G20 responsible for about 77% and a combined 0.7% increase.
- The UNFCCC’s latest synthesis foresees around a 10% cut in emissions by 2035 versus 1990 based on submitted pledges, far short of the roughly 60% reductions scientists say are needed for 1.5 C.
- Only 64 countries submitted updated NDCs by the Sept. 30 deadline, covering about one-third of global emissions, highlighting gaps in both participation and ambition.
- COP30 in Belém (Nov. 10–21) is framed as an implementation-focused summit centered on finance, adaptation, anti-deforestation action and loss-and-damage mechanisms, with the expected U.S. withdrawal adding roughly 0.1 C to projections and major emitters’ leaders skipping a two-day pre-summit.