Overview
- UNEP finds breaching 1.5C is very likely within the next decade, with current policies pointing to about 2.8C and global emissions rising 2.3% in 2024.
- EU environment ministers are pushing to formalize a 2035 bloc NDC in the 66.25%–72.5% range and debating a 90% cut by 2040, with divisions over carbon-credit flexibilities and review clauses.
- The United States is withdrawing from the Paris Agreement and will not send high-level officials to COP30, with UNEP estimating the reversal wipes out roughly 0.1C of progress and adds about 1 gigaton of U.S. emissions through 2030.
- Only about 60 parties met the NDC submission deadline, and the UN says G20 plans remain insufficient, underscoring slow delivery even as temperature overshoot risks grow.
- COP30 in Belém is being cast as an implementation summit focused on finance, adaptation and carbon markets, while a large subnational U.S. coalition plans to attend to showcase ongoing domestic action.