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UN Warns World Is Heading for 2.3–2.8°C Warming as EU Dilutes 2040 Target Before COP30

The new UNEP assessment signals an imminent overshoot of 1.5°C, with EU talks on added credit flexibilities risking softer near‑term domestic cuts.

Overview

  • UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report projects about 2.3–2.5°C of warming if national pledges are fully implemented, and roughly 2.8°C under current policies.
  • The report finds global greenhouse‑gas emissions rose 2.3% in 2024, with notable increases from India, China, Russia and Indonesia.
  • Keeping 1.5°C within reach would require cutting emissions about 55% by 2035 versus 2019, while current plans would deliver only around 15%.
  • EU environment ministers debated a 2040 goal of 90% cuts from 1990 levels alongside proposals allowing 3–5% of reductions via international carbon credits and adding review clauses.
  • The EU sought a final 2035 submission before COP30, but by Tuesday evening still wrestled with moving from a 66.25–72.5% range to a concrete target.