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UN Warns Carbon Budget to Limit Warming to 1.5°C Expires in Three Years

Record greenhouse gas emissions in 2024 have intensified the heat trapped by the planet’s growing energy imbalance.

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Firefighters during the Thompson fire in Oroville, California, 2024. Credit: UPI / Alamy Stock Photo.
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Overview

  • The world’s remaining carbon budget for a 50% chance of staying below 1.5°C stands at 130 billion tonnes of CO₂ from 2025 and will be used up in just over three years at current rates.
  • Global greenhouse gas emissions hit a record 53.6 billion tonnes of CO₂ equivalent in 2024, driven by fossil fuel combustion and deforestation.
  • Human-driven warming has accelerated to 0.27°C per decade from 2015 to 2024, with average temperatures peaking at 1.52°C above pre-industrial levels last year.
  • The Earth’s energy imbalance is climbing, steering excess heat into oceans, which have contributed to a 26 mm rise in sea levels between 2019 and 2024.
  • Scientists warn that only rapid and deep cuts in emissions this decade can alter the trajectory of warming and reduce the risk of extreme climate events and coastal flooding.