Overview

• The United Kingdom, France, and Germany triggered the JCPOA snapback on September 28, restoring wide UN penalties over Iran’s nuclear noncompliance.
• Early fallout includes Japan suspending dozens of Iranian assets, Turkey observing restrictions, and the rial dropping to a historic low.
• Commentators warn that sustained pressure combined with Tehran’s stance on enrichment and missiles increases the likelihood of renewed conflict with Israel.
• A 12-day confrontation in June ended with reported U.S. strikes on key nuclear sites and showed Iran’s limits despite roughly 500 ballistic missiles launched and heavy reliance on domestic drones.
• Iran’s politics are split between reformists urging a deal and a leadership line of resistance, while outreach to Russia and China has produced limited practical support.