Overview
- The UN slightly lifted its regional outlook, projecting 2.4% growth in 2025, 2.3% in 2026 and a rebound to 2.5% in 2027, driven by resilient consumption and a gradual investment pickup.
- Country paths diverge: Argentina is forecast at 3.8% for 2026 after a 4.3% rebound in 2025, Brazil slows to 2.0% on lagged monetary tightening and US tariff effects, and Mexico is seen at 1.3% contingent on more supportive policy settings.
- External pressures include recently higher US tariffs, migration-policy changes and elevated shipping costs, with global trade growth expected to cool to 2.2% in 2026.
- Regional inflation is projected to ease to about 4% in 2026 as labor markets stay relatively stable, yet high public debt and interest costs keep fiscal space tight.
- Private forecasters from BofA and Citi expect Mexico to expand around 1.0%–1.2% in 2026, citing weak investment and low productivity, while progress on the USMCA review could reduce uncertainty.