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UN Says Warming Could Reach 2.8°C as EU Ministers Wrangle Over 2035–2040 Climate Plan Before COP30

The latest UNEP assessment raises pressure on Europe to land credible, near‑term targets ahead of talks in Belém.

Overview

  • UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report projects 2.3–2.5°C warming by 2100 if current national plans are fully implemented, rising toward 2.8°C under existing policies, with 1.5°C likely to be exceeded within the next decade.
  • Global greenhouse‑gas output rose an estimated 2.3% in 2024 and coal consumption hit a record, even as renewables, led by solar, expanded rapidly but still not at the pace required.
  • Only about 60 of nearly 200 Paris Agreement parties submitted updated 2035 climate plans by the deadline, underscoring the shortfall in ambition and timeliness.
  • EU environment ministers met in Brussels to lock in a 2040 pathway near a 90% cut from 1990 levels and to finalize a 2035 NDC, with negotiators describing the talks as very difficult.
  • Key options on the table include lifting allowable use of internationally certified credits from 3% to as much as 5% and adding revision clauses, proposals supporters frame as flexibility that opponents warn would weaken real cuts.