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UN Says Even Best-Case Path Now Peaks Near 1.8°C. The Emissions Gap Report

The Emissions Gap Report warns that returning to 1.5°C now requires much faster cuts plus large-scale carbon removal.

Ice statues depicting a famer and a builder, groups of workers most vulnerable to heatwaves, placed by Greenpeace activists, melt under the sun, during a demonstration to highlight the impacts of global warming as a heatwave grips Italy, near the Colosseum, in Rome, Italy, July 15, 2026. REUTERS/Guglielmo Mangiapane
An ice statue depicting a famer, one of the groups of workers most vulnerable to heatwaves, placed by Greenpeace activists, melts under the sun, during a demonstration to highlight the impacts of global warming as a heatwave grips Italy, near the Colosseum, in Rome, Italy, July 15, 2026. REUTERS/Guglielmo Mangiapane
Aerial view of a coal port in Virginia, US. Credit: Nathan Wenger / Alamy Stock Photo
FILE - The coal-fired Mountaineer Power Plant, near New Haven, W.Va., operates across the Ohio River from the Lock 24 RV Park and Campground in Racine, Ohio, March 13, 2026. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster, File)

Overview

  • The UN Environment Programme's 2026 Emissions Gap Report, released Wednesday, shows the most optimistic pathway reaches about 1.7–1.8°C of warming by mid-century.
  • Under current policies the report projects about 2.8°C of warming by 2100 and about 2.6°C if countries fully meet existing pledges.
  • UNEP quantifies steep near-term cuts needed: 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035, and 69% by 2040 measured from 2025 levels, while current national plans would cut only about 5–8% by 2030.
  • The report says any return to 1.5°C depends on large, unproven carbon removal and a rapid '50% chance' pathway that would require roughly 6% annual emission cuts until 2035.
  • UN officials warn the findings expose a global leadership gap ahead of COP31 and note that 2025 emissions stayed near 2024 records with the United States showing the largest single-country rise.