Overview
- The UNFCCC’s 2026 NDC Synthesis Report, which was released Tuesday, finds nationally submitted pledges would lower greenhouse gas emissions by about 6% by 2035 and by about 9% if conditional measures are delivered.
- Scientists say those cuts fall far short of the roughly 60% reduction from 2019 levels the IPCC identifies as needed by 2035 to give a reasonable chance of keeping warming to 1.5°C.
- If current NDCs and stated long‑term decarbonisation targets are implemented the UN report estimates best‑case warming of about 1.7–2.3°C this century while a separate UNEP assessment projects roughly 2.6°C under present commitments.
- Global climate finance rose to an estimated $1.9 trillion per year for 2023–24, driven largely by private investment in renewables and low‑emission tech, but the report says this increase still falls far short of what is needed for rapid mitigation and adaptation.
- COP31 in Antalya is being cast as the venue to convert net‑zero dates and rising finance into near‑term action but progress faces political and finance obstacles including the United States’ withdrawal under President Donald Trump.