Overview
- The UN Environment Programme (PNUMA) reported Wednesday that exceeding the Paris Agreement goal of 1.5 °C is now inevitable and that the focus must shift to minimising the size and duration of that overshoot.
- The report sets precise near‑term targets for the low‑overshoot pathway: global emissions must fall 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035 and 69% by 2040 relative to 2025.
- Under current policies the planet is on track for about 2.8 °C of warming by 2100, full delivery of existing national pledges would yield roughly 2.6–2.7 °C, and only an optimistic full net‑zero delivery scenario approaches about 2.1 °C.
- PNUMA identifies the United States' formal withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and a 2025 US emissions rise of about 133 MtCO2e as key factors that have worsened projections and likely add roughly 0.1 °C to long‑term warming.
- The agency says returning to 1.5 °C would also require removal and permanent storage of roughly 320 GtCO2 over the century, a scale of carbon removal that is technologically and socio‑economically uncertain and would carry major costs and risks for vulnerable communities.