Overview
- Two UN reports published Monday, November 2, 2026 conclude that warming beyond 1.5°C will produce significant and often irreversible losses across glaciers, polar sea ice and permafrost.
- The reports update trajectory and impact estimates and say the world is currently on a path toward about 2.8°C, with sea‑level rise that could reach roughly five centimetres per year by 2150 and permafrost emissions on a scale comparable to a major national emitter.
- Authors warn that even a temporary 'overshoot' above 1.5°C would sharply amplify ice loss and its effects, and that recovery for many systems would take decades to centuries unless temperatures are brought back rapidly.
- Melting ice will drive faster sea‑level rise, higher flood and erosion risk for coastal communities, reduced and more variable water supplies from mountain glaciers, and greater landslide, avalanche and infrastructure damage in cold regions.
- Released ahead of the UN climate conference in Turkey, the reports press negotiators for fast cuts to fossil fuels and minimal overshoot while noting limited scope for partial recovery of some glaciers and sea ice if warming is quickly reduced.