UN Report Warns World Is Headed for 2.3–2.5°C Warming This Century

Overview

• UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report 2025 concludes an overshoot of 1.5°C is now inevitable under current commitments, with end‑century warming projected at roughly 2.3–2.5°C.
• Only 60 countries, covering about 63% of global emissions, had submitted updated national climate targets by late September 2025, which the UN deems far short of expectations.
• Global greenhouse gas emissions set a new high in 2024 at 57.7 billion tonnes CO2e, up 2.3% year over year, with deforestation and land‑use change responsible for more than half of the annual increase.
• Even if fully implemented, new national targets would deliver only about a 15% cut by 2035, far from the ~25% by 2030 for a 2°C path and ~40% for 1.5°C, and weak delivery could steer outcomes toward about 2.8°C.
• UNEP says reversing any overshoot will require large‑scale carbon removal that is costly and slow, with tree planting the only broadly cost‑effective option today, and it calls for immediate cuts and systemic financial reforms ahead of COP30 in Belém.