Overview
- UNFCCC analysis projects about a 10% decline in global greenhouse gas emissions by 2035 versus 2019 if current national plans are implemented, marking its first forecast of a steady global drop.
- The projected cut falls well short of the roughly 60% reduction the IPCC says is needed by 2035 to keep 1.5°C within reach, with the UN secretary-general warning of a likely short-term overshoot.
- Only 64 parties formally submitted updated NDCs by the September cutoff, covering roughly 30%–36% of 2019 emissions, and those plans would deliver about a 17% reduction for that subset by 2035.
- The global estimate incorporates announced but unfiled targets from China and the EU and includes a late U.S. pledge now questioned under President Trump, adding significant uncertainty.
- COP30 in Belém next month is positioned to firm up targets and delivery, as the UN notes improved plan quality alongside sizeable financing needs of roughly $1.97–$1.98 trillion for the submitted NDCs.