Overview
- The UN raises its 2026 regional growth forecast by 0.1 percentage point to 2.3% and lifts 2025 to 2.4%, projecting a further uptick to 2.5% in 2027.
- Private consumption, a gradual recovery in investment, and easier financial conditions underpin the outlook, even as global trade and capital spending soften.
- Risks include new U.S. tariffs, changing immigration rules, higher shipping costs, and the possibility of tighter global financial conditions, the report warns.
- Country paths diverge: Brazil is seen slowing to 2.0% in 2026 from an estimated 2.5% in 2025, Mexico edging up to 1.3% from 0.4%, Argentina easing to 3.8% after a 2025 rebound, and Guyana remaining an outlier on oil-fueled growth.
- Regional inflation is expected to ease toward about 4% in 2026 as high public debt and interest costs—estimated at over 5% of regional GDP—constrain fiscal room.