Overview
- The two reports released Monday, November 2, 2026, synthesize cryosphere science and conclude that surpassing 1.5°C will trigger large and often irreversible losses of glaciers, sea ice and frozen ground.
- Current warming is about 1.37°C and Copernicus observations indicate a likely exceedance of 1.5°C around 2030, making the next few years decisive for mitigation choices.
- Experts warn that even a temporary overshoot of 1.5°C will leave lasting harm because ice systems and frozen soils recover very slowly, taking decades to centuries to rebuild.
- Under a sustained ~2.8°C pathway the reports show far worse outcomes, including local sea-level rise of up to about 5 cm per year by 2150 and permafrost CO2 releases comparable to a large national emitter.
- The reports link recent human impacts to the cryosphere loss — for example about 20% glacier mass loss in Switzerland and the deadly August Himalayan collapse — and call for rapid policy action at COP31 to cut fossil fuels and curb future harm.