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UMass Study Predicts Strong Odds of Witnessing a Primordial Black Hole Explosion Within a Decade

The peer-reviewed model introduces a hypothetical dark charge that could delay evaporation, making such events detectable with existing instruments.

Overview

  • UMass Amherst researchers report in Physical Review Letters an estimated chance of up to about 90% of observing an exploding primordial black hole within ten years.
  • The analysis uses a dark-QED toy model featuring a heavy “dark electron” that can endow primordial black holes with a small dark electric charge and temporarily stabilize them before their final burst.
  • Under these assumptions, the expected observable rate increases to roughly one event per decade, versus earlier estimates of around once every 100,000 years.
  • Capturing such an explosion would provide the first direct evidence of Hawking radiation and yield a broad spectrum of emitted particles, including possible dark‑matter candidates.
  • No event has been seen so far, and the authors urge targeted searches using existing gamma‑ray observatories and particle‑shower detector networks.