Overview
- Ukrainian drones have repeatedly struck key refineries deep inside Russia, including fresh hits on Saratov and Lukoil’s Kstovo plant, with earlier attacks reaching Bashkortostan.
- Estimates of disrupted capacity vary widely, with figures ranging from roughly 20 percent to nearly 40 percent of Russia’s refining temporarily offline depending on the source.
- Fuel shortages have triggered long queues and rationing in several regions, with sales at some stations capped at 20 liters per person and about 360 outlets suspending gasoline sales in recent weeks.
- The Kremlin has extended a temporary gasoline export ban through the end of 2025, imposed a moratorium on damping-payment zeroing from October to May, delayed maintenance, bolstered air defenses and increased fuel imports from Belarus and Asian suppliers.
- Financial Times and Wall Street Journal report the United States is providing satellite data to sharpen Ukraine’s targeting, while analysts say the cumulative damage is eroding revenues; discussion of possible Tomahawk deliveries remains unconfirmed after President Volodymyr Zelensky said President Trump gave neither a yes nor a no.