Overview

• Ukrainian drones sparked an Oct. 4 fire that forced the shutdown of Kirishi’s main CDU‑6 unit, which handles about 8 million tonnes a year, roughly 160,000 barrels per day.
• The halted unit represents around 40% of the refinery’s capacity, and sector reports say the disruption could further tighten Russian fuel output already under strain.
• Kirishi processed 17.5 million tonnes of crude in 2024, about 6.6% of Russia’s refining volume, producing sizable gasoline and diesel volumes that underscore the potential supply impact.
• IAEA experts at Zaporizhzhia heard incoming and outgoing bombardments, with two strikes reported 1.25 km from the site’s perimeter, and the plant has lacked external power for nearly two weeks.
• President Trump said “I have made a decision” on sending Tomahawks to Kyiv, which analysts interpret as a de facto approval, as Germany’s Friedrich Merz warned of a Russian hybrid war and Hungary’s Viktor Orban rejected any obligation to support Ukraine’s EU bid.