Overview

• Ukrainian drones reportedly hit the Orsknefteorgsintez plant in Orenburg, about 1,400km from the border, extending the reach of strikes deep inside Russia.
• As of 28 September, about 38% of Russia’s primary refining capacity was offline, with Siala estimating roughly 70% of the downtime stems from drone attacks.
• Since August, at least 16 of 38 refineries have been struck, disrupting more than 1 million barrels of refining capacity and driving a roughly 40% spike in wholesale gasoline prices since January.
• Russia has extended a gasoline export ban and imposed partial diesel curbs, with oil-tracker data indicating diesel and gasoline exports have fallen about 30%.
• Gasoline output in September fell by about 1 million tons, domestic shortfalls reached roughly 20%, and rationing has surfaced in regions such as the Far East and Crimea while major cities remain largely unaffected.