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Ukraine Holds Key Rate at 15.5% With EU Financing Uncertain

The central bank says the hold preserves demand for hryvnia assets given uncertainty over 2026–27 funding.

Overview

  • The National Bank of Ukraine kept its benchmark rate unchanged on Dec. 11, marking a sixth straight hold since lifting it to 15.5% in March 2025.
  • Governor Andriy Pyshnyy said steady policy supports fixed-term hryvnia deposits and government bonds, curbs foreign-currency demand, and steers inflation toward the 5% target.
  • Inflation slowed to 9.3% in November, close to the NBU’s year-end forecast, but officials delayed any start to rate cuts due to unresolved external financing risks.
  • The EU estimates Ukraine needs €135 billion in 2026–27 and is pursuing a reparations-backed loan using frozen Russian assets, which faces opposition from Belgium’s prime minister ahead of a Dec. 18–19 summit.
  • Foreign-exchange reserves hit a record $54.7 billion in November as partners provided $45.8 billion this year with more than $5 billion still expected, yet projections warn cash could run out by mid-2026 without new support.