Overview
- Analysts say Ukraine has struck Russian oil refineries at least 194 times since the start of 2026, with May recording a monthly high of 16 successful hits.
- Ukrainian officials and analysts attribute the surge to mass production of longer‑range drones, improved tactics, and reported U.S. intelligence help routing drones around Russian air defenses.
- The attacks have contributed to a national fuel shortage in Russia, forcing more than half of regions to limit fuel sales and causing queues at gas stations, including after hits on the Kapotnya refinery in Moscow.
- Moscow counters that its forces have shot down the vast majority of incoming drones and reports nearly 64,000 drones downed over six months, a claim that creates a contested picture of actual damage and losses.
- The campaign's impact on Russia's logistics and economy has hardened negotiating positions and, according to participants and sources, makes substantive peace talks unlikely before early 2027.