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Ukraine Central Bank Cuts Key Rate to 15%, Opening Easing Cycle

Cooling inflation with clearer external funding reduced risks, prompting an easing cycle.

Overview

  • The National Bank of Ukraine made its first policy move in 10 months, reducing the benchmark from 15.5% to 15%.
  • Consumer inflation slowed to 8% in December, with the bank projecting 7.5% by end-2026 and 5% by mid-2028.
  • Governor Andriy Pyshnyi said the shift aims to support lending and help the economy adapt to wartime conditions.
  • The 2026 GDP growth forecast was trimmed to 1.8% after Russian strikes deepened a power deficit that the bank expects to average about 6% this year.
  • Foreign reserves stand at a record $57.3 billion with a year-end projection of $65 billion, supported by a planned €90 billion EU package and ongoing IMF program talks.