Overview

• Neso forecasts a 10% electricity supply margin, or 6.1GW, the highest since 2019–20 and the lowest blackout risk since before the pandemic.
• The operator still flags a small number of likely tight days in early December or mid-January, excluding the Christmas period, if cold, low wind and low imports coincide.
• Higher battery storage, increased use of gas-fired generation and a new interconnector to Ireland underpin the improved outlook.
• Even in a scenario with 4GW less generation or imports, Neso models a remaining margin of about 3.4GW, or 5.5% of peak demand.
• Household energy costs remain elevated with the typical annual bill at £1,755 after Ofgem’s price-cap rise, drawing warnings about dependence on gas and potential generator profiteering.