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UK Weighs 25% Rise in NICE Threshold as It Seeks to Avert US Drug Tariffs

The proposal aims to forestall US tariffs by trading easier access to high-cost treatments for a higher medicines bill.

Overview

  • UK officials briefed the Trump administration on the plan this week, and the government says talks are in an advanced stage.
  • The core idea is to raise NICE’s cost-effectiveness benchmark by about 25%—shifting roughly from £20,000–£30,000 to £25,000–£35,000 per QALY—making pricier drugs likelier to be approved and increasing NHS spending.
  • Departments are divided over funding, with NHS leaders resisting taking the hit from existing budgets and the Treasury signaling no new money, according to multiple reports.
  • The shift follows a string of investment decisions by drugmakers, including Merck halting a £1bn London research center, AstraZeneca and Eli Lilly pausing projects, and GSK announcing a $30bn investment in the US.
  • President Trump has threatened tariffs of up to 100% on pharmaceutical imports, and Pfizer recently secured a three-year US tariff reprieve after price cuts, a move seen as a bellwether for the sector.