Overview
- ONS reported regular pay, excluding bonuses, rose 4.5% in the three months to November, easing from 4.6% in the prior period.
- The ILO unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.1%, with job vacancies recorded at 734,000.
- Payrolled employment fell by 155,000 from a year earlier to November, and a further 43,000 drop was reported for December.
- Financial markets now fully price at least one 0.25 percentage point Bank Rate cut in 2026, with roughly a two-thirds chance of two cuts.
- November GDP beat forecasts, complicating the policy outlook as the Bank of England tracks pay as a signal of inflation persistence.