Overview

• The Office for National Statistics reported 4.7% average earnings growth for May to July, making it the likely triple-lock benchmark unless September inflation exceeds it.
• The full new state pension is projected to rise from £230.25 to £241.05 a week (£12,534.60 a year), with the old basic rate expected to reach about £184.75 a week.
• Quilter estimates a wages-led uprating would add roughly £6.3bn to the bill, around £1bn more than if inflation at 3.8% were used instead.
• With the personal allowance frozen at £12,570, the increase would leave the full payment just £35 below the tax threshold, pulling more retirees into income tax through fiscal drag, according to experts.
• About 453,000 expatriate pensioners in countries without uprating deals would not receive the rise, as broader debates continue on affordability, the planned move of state pension age to 67 by 2028, and potential future reforms.