Overview
- The ONS reported unemployment at 5.0% for the three months to September, the highest since early 2021 and above economists’ expectations.
- HMRC data showed a 32,000 fall in payrolled employees in October, with officials noting payroll declines in most of the past 12 months.
- Average regular earnings growth eased to 4.6% over the same period, leaving pay up 0.8% in real terms, while public sector pay growth outpaced the private sector.
- Vacancies were broadly unchanged, and statisticians highlighted a weakening labour market as wage momentum cools.
- The figures land before Rachel Reeves’s 26 November budget and will inform Treasury, OBR and Bank of England deliberations, drawing competing political responses on taxes and jobs policy.