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UK Unemployment Climbs to 5% as Payrolls Fall and Wage Growth Cools

The weaker data has lifted expectations of a December Bank of England rate cut.

Overview

  • ONS figures show the jobless rate at 5.0% in the three months to September, with about 1.79 million people unemployed.
  • HMRC data indicate payrolled employment fell by 32,000 in October after a revised 32,000 drop in September, leaving payrolls down roughly 180,000 on the year, with the series flagged as provisional.
  • Regular pay growth slowed to 4.6%, with public sector pay rising faster than the private sector, reported at about 6.6% versus 4.2%.
  • London was the worst‑affected region, with unemployment around 6.5% and an estimated 20,100 drop in resident payrolled jobs.
  • Economists and the Bank of England have linked hiring caution to uncertainty before the 26 November Budget, and analysts said the data increased the odds of a rate cut, with sterling and gilt yields slipping.