Overview

• Chancellor Rachel Reeves declined to give a clear guarantee that Labour’s manifesto lock on income tax, National Insurance and VAT for working people will hold.
• Chief Secretary Darren Jones said the manifesto "stands today" because decisions are pending, refusing to rule proposals in or out before the 26 November Budget.
• Treasury officials are reported to be assessing a broader VAT base, including applying VAT to private medical insurance, with some estimates suggesting roughly £2bn in potential revenue affecting millions of households.
• Extending the freeze on income tax thresholds remains under consideration, with Quilter estimating an average worker could pay about £214 more a year by 2029/30 if the policy is prolonged.
• Official data showed GDP rose 0.3% in Q2, and ministers expect updated OBR assumptions on growth and borrowing costs to open a budget gap widely cited around £30bn.