Overview

• Analysts now expect next April’s state pension increase to be between 4.0% and 4.5%, equating to roughly £478–£539 extra per year for full new pension claimants.
• The triple lock formula uses the higher of September inflation, May–July wage growth or a 2.5% floor, and recent data confirm inflation near 4% and ONS wage growth at 5.0%.
• DWP figures show 13.1 million pensioners drawing support and a near-£18 billion year-on-year spending rise to about £142 billion in 2025.
• Rising costs have intensified policy debates, with proposals for pension means-testing, accelerated pension-age increases and an independent Pensions Commission under consideration.
• With the full state pension closing in on the frozen £12,570 personal allowance, many pensioners could face new income tax liabilities next year.