Overview

• The revised May–July earnings figure of 4.8% is now the leading metric for next April’s triple lock, taking the full new state pension to about £241.30 a week and the basic rate to about £184.90.
• At £241.30 a week, the full new state pension would total roughly £12,547.60 a year, leaving many recipients close to the £12,570 personal allowance that has been frozen since 2021.
• Analysts estimate around 400,000 more pensioners could be drawn into paying income tax next year, with some expecting HMRC to issue adjustments or letters to those near the threshold.
• Work and Pensions Secretary Pat McFadden has reiterated the government’s commitment to the triple lock for this Parliament, while commentators note the uplift adds £100m-plus to the state pension bill.
• The projected uplift remains subject to formal confirmation, and separate administrative changes mean many pensioners will receive Winter Fuel Payments that HMRC will later reclaim from higher-income recipients, with payments set at £300 for over-80s and £200 for under-80s.