Overview
- Revised ONS figures show average earnings including bonuses rose 4.8% in May–July, making wages the likely determinant for the April 2026 uprating under the triple lock.
- If applied, projections indicate the full New State Pension would rise to about £241.30 a week and the full Basic State Pension to roughly £184.90, pending formal confirmation by ministers.
- September CPI was reported at 3.8%, reinforcing expectations that the earnings measure, rather than inflation or the 2.5% floor, will set next year’s increase.
- The Institute of Economic Affairs warns the mechanism is fiscally unsustainable, citing faster‑than‑expected pension spending and mounting age‑related costs.
- With the personal allowance frozen at £12,570, a full‑year New State Pension close to that level could push more retirees into paying income tax, particularly where other income is received.