Overview

• The Treasury confirmed Rachel Reeves will present the Budget on 26 November and has given the OBR the required 10 weeks’ notice to produce forecasts.
• Thirty‑year gilt yields hit their highest since 1998 and sterling fell on Tuesday before easing, signaling investor concern over debt costs and fiscal credibility.
• Independent forecasters see a large funding gap, with NIESR estimating a £41 billion shortfall against the rule to balance day‑to‑day spending by 2029–30.
• Reeves says she will keep a tight grip on day‑to‑day spending and pursue growth measures, while analysts expect revenue‑raising or restraint despite pledges not to raise income tax, national insurance or VAT.
• Recent changes to the Downing Street economic team, including Darren Jones’s move to a new role and Minouche Shafik’s appointment as chief economics adviser, have drawn market scrutiny ahead of the Budget.