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UK Says Russian War Casualties Likely Top 1.14 Million as Fighting Concentrates on Pokrovsk

Citing Ukrainian General Staff data, the UK intelligence update highlights a renewed rise in October’s daily losses.

Overview

  • Defence Intelligence estimates roughly 1,140,000 Russian killed and wounded since the 2022 invasion, with about 353,000 in 2025 to date.
  • October averaged 1,008 Russian casualties per day, up from 950 in September and marking a second consecutive monthly increase.
  • Despite the uptick, August through October 2025 were assessed as the lowest monthly averages since April 2024.
  • Pokrovsk is assessed as Russia’s priority axis, receiving the largest share of daily assaults as forces push to envelop the logistics hub.
  • Russian units advanced from the southern outskirts toward Pokrovsk’s center and pressed Rodynske and Myrnohrad, as Ukraine mounted limited counterattacks near Dobropillia.