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UK Retail Growth Slows as Shoppers Hold Out for Black Friday, With Grocery Inflation Easing to 4.7%

New readings point to a wait‑and‑see approach before the 26 November Budget.

Overview

  • BRC/KPMG reported retail sales up 1.6% year on year in October, the weakest growth since May as households delayed non‑essential purchases.
  • Barclays said card spending fell 0.8% from a year earlier, with one in three consumers postponing major buys until after the Budget and all seven confidence measures declining.
  • Worldpanel by Numerator put grocery inflation at 4.7% in the four weeks to 2 November, with spending on promoted items up 9.4% to just under 30% of grocery outlay.
  • Supermarket performance diverged as Ocado sales jumped 15.9% and Tesco and Lidl gained share, while Asda’s sales fell 3.9% and its market share stood at 11.6%.
  • Retailers say they are counting on Black Friday to lift demand as consumer reports of shrinkflation and skimpflation grow, especially for festive treats.