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UK Population Growth Forecast Cut as Net Migration Drops by Half

Provisional figures showing net migration halved in 2024 led the ONS to switch to a migration-focused projection that lowers its decade-long population forecast.

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Overview

  • The Office for National Statistics reduced its projection for UK population growth to 5.9% between mid-2022 and mid-2032, down from 7.3% earlier this year.
  • Under the revised model, England’s population is expected to rise by 6.4%, reaching 60.8 million by 2032.
  • Population is projected to grow in 302 of 309 local authorities, with Tower Hamlets leading at 20.4% growth and Gosport experiencing a 2.1% decline.
  • International migration remains the primary growth driver in urban areas, while internal migration contributes substantially to increases in other regions.
  • The share of residents of state pension age in England will climb from 17.6% to 18.7% by 2032, highlighting an aging population trend.