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UK Net Migration Forecast to Halve to 200,000 as Jobs Market Weakens

Labour’s tougher visa thresholds combined with falling vacancies threaten to worsen staffing shortages in care and hospitality.

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Overview

  • ONS data shows available jobs dropped by 63,000 between March and May, signaling weakening labour demand and a rise in unemployment.
  • Migration Advisory Committee chair Prof Brian Bell predicts net migration will fall from 431,000 to around 200,000 next year before stabilising near 300,000 in the medium term.
  • Labour’s immigration white paper raises work visa skill thresholds to degree level, reducing lower-skilled visas and excluding sectors such as hospitality and retail.
  • A ban on care workers bringing family members to the UK has driven a steep decline in health and care worker visas, risking closures in social care homes.
  • The Migration Advisory Committee warns that raising the salary threshold for family visas to £38,700 could conflict with human-rights laws on the right to family life.